I found the following question today on one of the message boards that I frequent:

Not that I would like to see another Y2K panic, but is anyone considering a personal disaster plan in case the Bird Flu (H5N1) goes human to human? I read it’s now pig to pig, so we’re one step closer, and if we’ve learned anything from Katrina, it’s that’s Big Brother isn’t watching you too closely, and you’d better be prepared to save yourself.

Since it will take an estimated 4-6 months to develop a vaccine, and at this point the mortality rate is 50%, what does everyone plan on doing? Hunkering down with some canned food and locking their doors while estimated millions die? Buying a family supply of Tamiflu ahead of time (and not sharing it with their sick neighbors)? Ignoring it all and hoping the government will make it go away? Anything? Anyone?

My response:

Personally, I plan to relax a bit and ignore media-inspired panics.

Call me an optimist, but I think that the odds that a flu pandemic, even with a 50% mortality rate (and I believe that the bird flu has a much lower mortality rate than that, and that even that 50% mortality rate affects mostly people with previously-compromised immune systems) destroying half of humanity on the earth in less than six months are between slim and nil — and Slim’s ridin’ out of town.

Historically, there haven’t been that many pandemics. The Black Death of the 14th century surely counts as the worst, of course; and then there was the Spanish flu outbreak of the 1910’s. Both of them could have been prevented if modern medical technology and care had been available.

Or perhaps I have simply slipped into overly optimistic complacency by the number of global disaster predictions I’ve seen made and that have come true since the early 1970’s (exactly zero).